Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Significant resources is allocated on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a capability provided through up-to-date information. From observation points, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming aerial threats flew past – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: defensive missiles fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – probably Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, devastation and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a reliance that regional partners are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding civilians and areas but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.
