Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
